A multiregional perspective on impact transfers: The case of Italy, China and the rest of the world

In recent years, relations between Italy and China have significantly strengthened, particularly in the renewable energy sector. China, the global leader in photovoltaic technology production, has become a strategic partner for Italy in its ecological transition. China's low production costs encourage the import of essential components for Italian solar plants. In 2024, over 90% of the newly installed renewable capacity in Italy was photovoltaic, confirming an increasing dependence on the Chinese production chain. This trade exchange activates a chain of effects at multiple levels: intraregional (multiplier), interregional (spillover) and return (feedback). Since few studies have considered an integrated interregional assessment of renewable energy systems, this study relies on an environmentally-extended multiregional input-output (EE-MRIO) approach to jointly evaluate the economic, environmental, and social impacts at both the national and global levels. With an expected investment of €46 billion in the photovoltaic sector by 2030 in Italy, the results show that most environmental impacts are transferred abroad, while approximately 64% of greenhouse gas emissions occur within the national territory. Nonetheless, Italy benefits significantly in terms of economic and social indicators, demonstrating the effectiveness of the adopted model in supporting the energy transition.